April, 2009

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Swine flu outbreak timeline

Monday, April 27th, 2009

Australian emergency departments have been advised to suspect and manage potential cases of swine flu with respiratory precautions and report suspected cases and take nose and throat swabs for viral culture or send NPA.

Guidelines and references:

Timeline:

  • Feb 2009:
    • Ground zero: 1st report flu outbreak in eastern Veracruz state, Mexico, but apparently not confirmed as swine flu until April 12th – see here
  • ~13th April 2009:
    • 1st report of a death from swine flu in Mexico
  • 21st April 2009:
    • CDC reports 2 cases of swine flu in southern California
  • 27th April 2009:
    • death toll in Mexico now standing at 149, with nearly 2,000 people believed to be infected
    • confirmed swine flu cases in the United States has grown to 48, while cases elsewhere stand at six in Canada, one in Spain, two in Scotland and several in NZ
    • World Health Organisation (WHO) raises its pandemic alert level to four – the WHO’s Phase 6 is the pandemic phase, characterized by outbreaks in at least two regions of the world
    • Aside from the confirmed cases, 13 are suspected in New Zealand, and one is suspected in both France and Israel. 80 people are being tested throughout Australia after developing flu-like symptoms following travel to Mexico region.
  • 30th April 2009:
    • report of 1st death outside Mexico – a child in Texas
    • Mexico revises number of cases down to 97 confirmed cases and 7 deaths
    • World Health Organisation (WHO) raises its pandemic alert level to five
  • 1st May 2009:
    • 330 cases worldwide across 11 countries as governments start media campaign to educate the public on how to reduce transmission while thermal imaging introduced at airports to screen travelers.
  • 5th May 2009:
    • More milder than thought – 1,200 cases in 21 countries with 26 dead in Mexico and 1 in USA according to Reuters
  • 6th May 2009:
    • 1893 cases in 23 countries (mainly Mexico, USA, Canada, Spain, UK) with 29 dead in Mexico and 2 in USA – Mexico has increased confirmed deaths to 42.
    • 476 suspect cases in Australia tested but 449 cases (94%) cleared and no proven cases yet
  • 16th May 2009:
    • 8451 cases in 36 countries (mainly Mexico (2895 cases and 66 deaths), USA (4714 cases and 4 deaths), Canada (496 cases and 1 death), Spain (100 cases), UK (78 cases))
    • Australia – 1 case
  • 17th May 2009:
    • Japan has now confirmed 40 cases in Hyogo and Osaka prefectures, 37 of which are among high school students
    • The new virus is behaving much like a seasonal influenza strain – spreading rapidly and causing mainly mild symptoms
  • 20th May 2009:
    • 1st confirmed case in Australia – Melbourne
  • 22nd May 2009:
    • 12 confirmed cases in Australia – 7 in Victoria
  • 25th May 2009:
    • 20 confirmed cases in Australia, 6552 cases in USA with 9 deaths, 3892 cases in Mexico and 75 deaths, 719 cases in Canada and 1 death, 321 cases in Japan, 126 cases in Spain, 117 cases in England.
  • 26th May 2009:
    • 51 confirmed cases in Australia – 24 in Victoria
  • 28th May 2009:
    • 150 confirmed cases in Australia – 99 in Victoria
  • 1st June 2009:
    • 17,410 cases worldwide, 297 confirmed cases in Australia but only 18 deaths outside of Mexico, suggesting that whilst it seems to be very infective, it is not thus far been as deadly as seasonal flu.
  • 11th June 2009:
    • now that Victoria has become the “most region with highest prevalence” in the world and the government has moved to “sustain” phase and no longer counting cases, it has offered free Tamiflu to cases and contacts at pharmacies (instead of only EDs) after several young adults required intubation and admission to ICU in Melbourne this week.
  • 12th June 2009:
    • WHO announces it is now officially a pandemic, albeit a mild one, but the first pandemic in some 40yrs nevertheless, and the 1st time one has been tracked so early in its course.
  • 26th June 2009:
    • Michael Jackson dies aged 50 but apparently not from influenza.
    • US officials estimate swine flu has hit over 1 million in USA
    • Australia records its 5th death related to swine flu but confirmed cases substantially underestimnate real cases as testing in Victoria has essentially ceased.

    Concerns raised of Victoria’s new HealthSmart IT systems

    Friday, April 17th, 2009

    The Age today reported on page 5 substantial concerns by anonymous whistleblowers that Victoria’s Healthsmart IT including its patient management and clinical systems which are still being rolled out to hospitals, are not as functional as hoped and too expensive.

    I am not sure the adjectives printed in The Age are totally appropriate, but certainly it does suggest there is significant frustration with the systems and perhaps the process of ensuring adequate functionality and efficiency that meets the needs of users, and in the end, patients.

    Much has changed in expectations of IT systems since these systems were selected in the early years of this decade, and people now expect an efficient, nice to use, user interface where data is entered only once and with a minimum number of mouse clicks, and that real life processes will have been examined and the IT system really support it to improve its efficiency.

    It is unlikely we will get a beautiful user interface experience like the iPhone
    , but there is no reason why this could not be possible, or at least attempted – instead of an interface of the late 1990’s – but even with such interfaces, they can be made efficient.

    Unfortunately, I missed the DHS forums on the clinical system earlier this month (see previous blog) so I can’t really comment on these systems having not used them personally, but I do suspect, given the amount of pressure placed on health care workers to do their normal jobs, perhaps they have not been given sufficient time to have inputs into system design, and perhaps the motivation that their time will result in change.

    Doctors would not have been likely to attend design stages of the patient management system because generally they do not directly interact with these systems as this is generally left to clerks – but they now may find that their lack of input may impact upon them in other ways such as the amount of time it will take clerks to do simple chores such as admitting a patient to a ward from ED, transfer to another campus, or get an outpatient appointment.

    These repeated tasks which happen hundreds of times each day should not take dozens of mouse clicks and cognitive decision making at each step to achieve but should be achievable by just a few mouse clicks perhaps via speed buttons for common tasks with default values inserted and the ability to over-ride these for special circumstances.

    Patient allergies and alerts systems need to be centralised so that third party department systems (eg. EDIS) can read and write to the centralised data system.

    Likewise third party reporting should be able to read data from a data warehouse repository containing PMI data to allow managers to produce accurate live reports to ensure they have the best data available to make timely decisions to improve clinical systems – currently it seems such functionality is NOT available and that hospitals are expected to extract data from the live system each night into their own data repositories – this is not an acceptable solution in this era.

    Systems which force medical and nursing staff to almost totally rely on IT systems such as electronic ordering of pathology/radiology, electronic prescribing, electronic clinical notes have substantial change management issues for staff – not the least is the need for almost a dedicated computer per staff member and available at the bed side or nearby, rapid security authentication, 100% 24×7 reliability even on days of 47degC when the power systems fail, and above all efficient data entry which minimises the time staff members spend on computers instead of attending to patients.

    Ensuring IT systems work well for you is not a simple matter, and requires attention to the small details – something that most ED clinicians will not be too keen to involve themselves in, but which may be critical to the success of these systems – unfortunately, such ability to make changes seems to primarily sit with the original “lead agencies”.

    By nature, governments tend to push for systems which they can most accord and which provide them with their required data irrespective of how onerous it is on hospital staff to enter, hospital IT departments tend to push for IT systems which make their work easier such as generalised whole-of-hospital systems instead of dedicated departmental systems designed for end-user efficiency.

    It is up to end-users to ensure they have a say in ensuring that the user interface suits their needs and will work well for them – it may not be too late.

    It is worth pushing to remove even small annoyances and inefficiencies as these usually do not take much programming effort (although money may be needed) but will impact users for years to come unnecessarily.

    New drugs on PBS: Dabigatran, Daptomycin, Etravirine

    Tuesday, April 7th, 2009

    Dabigatran etexilate:

    • marketed as Pradaxa in 75mg and 110mg capsules
    • orally active direct inhibitor of thrombin used instead of heparin or enoxaparin for prophylaxis of DVT after surgery
    • it is given as initial half-dose, 1-4 hours AFTER surgery when peak action occurs by 2 hours post-dose
    • half life of 12-14 hours is slightly longer in post-op patients
    • does not require monitoring of clotting profile such as INR
    • primarily renally excreted and thus contraindicated if creatinine clearance < 30ml/min
    • also contraindicated in liver disease – partly as the 1st thrombin inhibitor, ximelagatran, was withdrawn after concerns of hepatotoxicity
    • not recommended to use concurrent anticoagulants or anti-platelet agents such as warfarin or clopidogrel, and max. daily dose of aspirin should be 75mg to avoid bleeding risk
    • drug interactions via P-glycoprotein transporter actions include amiodarone, verapamil, clarithromycin, and St John’s wort. Quinidine is contraindicated.
    • maybe slightly less effective in preventing DVT in hip/knee surgery than is enoxaparin

    Daptomycin:

    • marketed as Cubicin for Rx of Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and skin infections, particularly in those patients intolerant or allergic to penicillin or other anti-staph. antibiotics
    • parenteral cyclic lipopeptide antibiotic derived from Streptomyces roseosporus which is bactericidal by rapidly depolarising the membrane potential of Gram +ve bacteria, thereby inhibiting DNA, RNA and protein synthesis
    • steady state concentrations reached after the third daily iv infusion
    • primarily excreted by kidneys
    • usual dose: 4-6mg/kg iv once daily for 7-14 days
    • CK elevations are twice as likely with daptomycin compared with standard treatment (thus check CK weekly or more frequently if at risk such as taking statins), while peripheral nervous system adverse effects where also more common, but renal impairment was less likely
    • special care with concurrent warfarin or tobramycin Rx
    • NOT effective for left-sided endocarditis or pneumonia as it binds to surfactant and is inactivated
    • NOT effective against enterococci
    • efficacy not demonstrated for prosthetic heart valve endocarditis
    • Etravirine:

      • marketed as Intelence in 100mg tablets for Rx of patients with HIV who have evidence of viral replication and drug resistance to other antiretroviral drugs including NNRTIs
      • it is a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) and thus blocks the RNA-dependent and DNA-dependent activities of DNA polymerase

    ED over-crowding and access block in the latest MJA journal

    Monday, April 6th, 2009

    The latest MJA journal has several papers relating to hospital access block in Australia and New Zealand:

    Access block: it’s all about available beds – Daniel M Fatovich, Geoff Hughes and Sally M McCarthy

    Access block can be managed – Peter A Cameron, Anthony P Joseph and Sally M McCarthy – abstract:

    • Hospitals cannot manage their emergency patients when there is significant access block.
    • There are solutions that should be implemented but require national leadership to be effective.
    • These solutions include an immediate increase in the number of acute hospital beds, improved coordination and increased community capacity to manage medical patients with complex conditions outside acute public hospitals, improved hospital processes, and better standardisation of treatment within emergency departments.
    • There is little evidence that telephone triage, ambulatory care clinics or disaster management techniques, including ambulance diversion, reduce access block.

    Myths versus facts in emergency department overcrowding and hospital access block – Drew B Richardson and David Mountain abstract:

    • Overcrowding occurs when emergency department (ED) function is impeded, primarily by overwhelming of ED staff resources and physical capacity by excessive numbers of patients needing or receiving care. Access block occurs when there is excessive delay in access to appropriate inpatient beds (> 8 hours total time in the ED).
    • Access block for admitted patients is the principal cause of overcrowding, and is mainly the result of a systemic lack of capacity throughout health systems, and not of inappropriate presentations by patients who should have attended a general practitioner. Overcrowding is most strongly associated with excessive numbers of admitted patients being kept in the ED.
    • Excessive numbers of admitted patients in the ED are associated with diminished quality of care and poor patient outcomes. These include (but are not limited to) adverse events, errors, delayed time-critical care, increased morbidity and excess deaths (estimated as at least 1500 per annum in Australia).
    • There is no evidence that telephone advice lines or collocated after-hours GP services assist in reducing ED workloads.
    • Changes to ED structure and function do not address the underlying causes or major adverse effects of overcrowding. They are also rapidly overwhelmed by increasing access block.
    • The causes of overcrowding, and hence the solutions, lie outside the ED. Solutions will mainly be found in managing hospital bedstock and systemic capacity (including the use of step-down and community resources) so that appropriate inpatient beds remain available for acutely sick patients.

    Interventions to circumvent intensive care access block: a retrospective 2-year study across metropolitan Melbourne – Graeme J Duke, Michael D Buist, David Pilcher, Carlos D Scheinkestel, John D Santamaria, Geoff A Gutteridge, Peter J Cranswick, David Ernest, Craig French and John A Botha