actuarial science - predicting life expectancy

see also:

• welcome to the OzEMedicine Wiki
• Ubble's 2015 risk calculator for death within next 5 years - uses just 11-13 questions
• wikipedia - longevity
• wikipedia -actuarial science
• wikipedia - life tables - probability of death before next birthday

• life expectancy (e_x) = avg. number years of life remaining for a person at age x
• life expectancy at birth (e₀) = avg. number years of life from birth

• USA 2009 life tables
• life tables show life expectancy for each age and are usually given for each of the following factors:
  • year
  • country
  • ethnicity
  • gender
  • +/- smoking status

• http://ubble.co.uk/
• 2015 calculator using questionnaire data from UK Biobank surveying only those aged 40-70yr olds
• they found 11 - 13 gender based questions which were most accurate in predicting mortality including:
  • age
  • gender
  • smoking status
  • walking pace
  • self-assessment of health status
  • known diseases such as heart, diabetes, cancer
  • disability status
  • who you live with
  • number of cars at household

• http://flowingdata.com/2015/09/23/years-you-have-left-to-live-probably/
• just uses your gender and age and US Social Security data to give a histogram on likely years left, thus a 54yr old male has ~10% chance he will die in next 9 yrs, and > 10% chance he will live past 94 yrs old!