disaster medical aspects for Melbourne

sea level rise from climate change is likely to impact low lying coastal areas such as Elwood and parts of Port Melbourne especially in the next 50-100 years

see https://openinframap.org/#6.87/-37.306/145.406 for map of Melbourne's power infrastructure

in addition to these there are local small storages which usually rely upon electrical pumping

prolonged power outages are likely to have a major impact on Melbourne as with any region given modern systems are almost totally reliant upon electricity

currently most solar panel systems connected to the grid will be switched off if the grid goes down for safety reasons - a potential exception may be if they solar panels are connected to a local large battery system and can be isolated from the grid

hospitals and other key buildings generally have back up power generators but these are likely to fail after 96 hours or so unless more diesel can be delivered

most homes do not have any power backups

those with solar panels PLUS lithium battery storage systems PLUS the ability to run their solar panels when the grid is down (most do not have this functionality) will have the best chance of managing a prolonged outage

this is likely to occur early and significantly impact food supplies

a camping LiFePO4 battery with AC inverter and a solar panel may be able to avert this issue in the home fridge at least for a few days and possibly longer but retail supplies of these foods are likely to become scarce

people will need to rely upon foods that do not require refrigeration such as canned foods, most vegetables, fruits and nuts

these could have major impacts in extremes of weather

even gas heaters generally need electricity to function

mobile phone and internet services are likely to fail

access to information will be difficult

portable AM/FM radios will be useful

trains and trams will fail immediately

airports are likely to be closed

electric vehicles will soon run out of electricity

loss of banking / credit card systems will mean purchases will need to be made with cash

very few have large enough amounts of cash in their houses to manage this adequately

this will then impact ability to buy fuel and food

communication systems failures will impact emergency services who will need to rely upon portable radio devices

these are likely to fail once local battery backup systems are exhausted

looting is likely to become common

sewerage systems need electricity to ensure the sewage is continually pumped to treatment plants

fortunately, Melbourne’s water supply is gravity-fed from reservoirs for much of the distribution network, which can continue to supply water for a time during outages

however, water booster pumps are required for high-rise buildings, elevated suburbs, and during periods of peak demand

various fault lines lie adjacent to Melbourne including the Selwyn Fault, Mornington Peninsula and Rowsley Fault in Bacchus Marsh

the 5.6 magnitude 1989 Newcastle earthquake in NSW was very destructive and an event similar to this could occur in Melbourne

risk of a significant damaging event affecting Melbourne is rated at ~2% in the next 50 years

the frequency of earthquakes killing more than 1000 people in Greater Melbourne has been estimated to be 0.1% per annum at 5% over 50yrs, although this is higher than the stated risk a significant damaging event of 2% over 50yrs ⁷⁾

the highest risk in Victoria is in far eastern suburbs of Melbourne and west Gippsland from Yarra Junction southwards to Wilsons Prom with risk rated at ~10% in the next 50 yrs ⁸⁾

a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the Selwyn fault is estimated to have a 4.5% mortality rate for those living in residences with unreinforced masonry bearing walls ⁹⁾

a magnitude 7.8 event occurring at the Muckleford fault (near Castlemaine) would severely impact the Bacchus Marsh-Melton region in particular and this could include Rosslyn and Merrimu Reservoirs¹⁰⁾

It is very unlikely that a well constructed and maintained dam would fail.¹¹⁾

flooding associated with dam failure would depend on the height of the dam wall, the amount of water in the dam and the shape of the valley below the dam

the path of water during the flood can also be difficult to predict as erosion or blockages by debris can change the course of the flood.

in 2025, a large scale outbreak in the ocean waters in Sth Australia including up to Adelaide has had prolonged and spreading impacts on fishing, swimming and had major deaths of many marine species

such an event could occur in Port Philip Bay

heat waves are relatively common in Summer in Melbourne and do cause a substantial number of excess deaths in the community

climate change may increase the frequency and severity of such events

Melbourne experienced a very severe and prolonged drought starting in the 1990's which not only resulted in major bushfires but it prompted the Victorian Govt to built a large desalination plant in Gippsland which has not been needed as the drought broke before it was completed, however, this remains an important backup option in addition to the numerous water reservoirs which supply Melbourne's water.

Climate change may increase the frequency and severity of such events

this will likely effect the whole planet and severely impact most life and civilisations

this may occur if we pass the “tipping points” when there is unlikely to be a way to reverse the rising global heating

during the mid-to-late Pleistocene (∼1.2 million to 11,700 years before present), Earth’s climate oscillated between ice ages and warmer interglacials, with temperatures ranging roughly between −6°C and +2°C relative to the pre-industrial mean of ∼14°C.

the Holocene, beginning ∼11,700 years ago, developed into a relatively stable climate that enabled agriculture, complex societies, and today’s ecosystems to develop and thrive.

global temperatures are now as warm as, or warmer than, any period in the last 125,000 years and it is likely that carbon dioxide levels are higher than at any time in at least the past two million years.

we are leaving the stable conditions of the Holocene, and entering a period of unprecedented climate change beyond the natural interglacial envelope, with outcomes that are difficult to predict.

warming itself appears to be accelerating: the rate has risen from roughly 0.05°C per decade in the mid-20th century to about 0.31°C per decade today. At this pace, warming may soon cross levels often seen as a limit against severe impacts and tipping cascades.

declining aerosol emissions reduce the cooling effect that has masked greenhouse gas warming, potentially adding up to a further ∼0.5°C to global temperatures

major tipping may already be underway or could occur soon for the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, boreal permafrost, mountain glaciers, and parts of the Amazon rainforest

if one major tipping element tips, it can trigger a cascade effect, pushing other systems past their thresholds. Such tipping cascades have the potential to drive self-sustaining climate change adding to the risk of triggering a hothouse Earth trajectory

for example, further rise in global temperatures may lead to further melting of Arctic sea ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet, which in turn accelerates warming by reducing Earth’s albedo. With the decline of these northern ice sources, the resulting meltwater could perturb the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is already showing signs of weakening. A weakened AMOC could alter global atmospheric circulation, shifting tropical rain belts and drying parts of the Amazon. This cascade of events could trigger large-scale Amazon forest dieback, with major consequences for the region’s carbon storage and biodiversity. Carbon released by Amazon dieback would further amplify global warming and interact with other feedbacks.This could push the Earth system toward a hothouse pathway, locking in substantially higher long-term temperatures even if human emissions decline.

the Greenland Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rise of 0.8°C and 3.4°C, potentially significantly below 2°C warming, which could occur well before 2050.¹²⁾

many of the tipping point thresholds are still uncertain.

a hot house earth will decimate much of Victoria through perpetual heat waves, droughts and fires until there is nothing left to burn

a very severe solar storm may cause loss of electrical and telecommunications networks - these events are historically uncommon

this could have major impacts and cause major collisions, especially with flights, autonomous driven vehicles, etc.

tsunamis may impact the Victorian coastline, especially eastern Victoria from Puysegur Trench (south of New Zealand and would have an impact time of 2 hrs after event), while a small tsunami hit from a magnitude 9.5 earthquake in Chile in 1960

no significant tsunami has impacted Melbourne in recorded history

this is extremely unlikely as all Victoria's volcanoes have been dormant for over 5000 yrs but nevertheless an eruption is possible but most likely in SW Victoria rather than Melbourne

nevertheless, melting of glaciers and ice caps risks increasing volcanic activity with western Antarctica the highest risk

Antarctica stores more than 90 per cent of the planet’s land-based fresh water

this is ZERO risk (unlike 41,000 yrs ago when a supernova may have impacted mammoths, or perhaps another one 13,000 yrs ago which may have ended the megafauna)

there are no stars likely to go supernova in the next 1000 years within the 250 light year distance that would impact life or the environment

the closest likely supernova is Betelgeuse which is a safe 400-600 light years away