an older, historical set of spirometry reference equations used to calculate a patient's predicted normal lung function values (such as FVC, FEV₁, and FEF₂₅₋₇₅%) based on their age, height, and sex
first published by Dr. Ronald Knudson in 1976 and updated in 1983, it was one of the most widely implemented standards in pulmonary function software across North America and parts of the world throughout the late 20th century
relies on standard linear regression models divided into distinct age groups. For example, the formulas shift drastically between growing children, young adults, and aging populations
sample bias: the original 1976 model was built on a very small sample size of only 746 healthy, non-smoking Caucasian individuals in Tucson, Arizona
systematically overestimate % predicted values in younger patients, meaning some real respiratory deficits are missed (false negatives)
the mathematical formulas switch abruptly at arbitrary age cut-offs (e.g., transitioning from a 24-year-old equation to a 25-year-old equation), a patient's “predicted baseline” can drop unnaturally overnight on a screen just because they had a birthday