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actuarial science - predicting life expectancy


  • life expectancy (ex) = avg. number years of life remaining for a person at age x
  • life expectancy at birth (e0) = avg. number years of life from birth

life tables

  • life tables show life expectancy for each age and are usually given for each of the following factors:
    • year
    • country
    • ethnicity
    • gender
    • +/- smoking status

online calculators of mortality


  • 2015 calculator using questionnaire data from UK Biobank surveying only those aged 40-70yr olds
  • they found 11 - 13 gender based questions which were most accurate in predicting mortality including:
    • age
    • gender
    • smoking status
    • walking pace
    • self-assessment of health status
    • known diseases such as heart, diabetes, cancer
    • disability status
    • who you live with
    • number of cars at household

flowing data

actuary.txt · Last modified: 2015/09/27 03:03 by

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